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markets
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Domestic disappointment, international success?
For all of President Trump’s posturing on Twitter, we don’t envy his position. If people came to you with the notion they would be closely judging your achievements in your job over the first 100 days, would you be concerned? At the very least, keen to make an impression perhaps? Now, imagine that group is over 322 million strong and your office is the highest in the land. Having 100 symbolic days to come through for 161 million expectant voters whilst trying to prove another 161 million distrusting voters that you are the man for the job, would almost certainly give most of us sleepless nights.
May's u-turn: Why now?
From the toppling of a Prime Minister and flash crashes in the pound, all the way down to the callous downsizing of our nation’s Toblerone bars, the UK’s historic Leave vote from the EU continues to run more like a suspense-filled thriller than a political motion to leave the single market. In the latest twist to the story, Prime Minister Theresa May announced last Wednesday that she would ‘reluctantly’ hold a snap General Election on 8th June 2017 to reaffirm the strong and stable leadership of her party, during such a moment of enormous national significance.
Millenials: Well-educated, tech-savvy and ready to change the world!
Some say they’re just out of nappies, others say they’re the next world leaders, we say that the Millennial generation (those born between 1980 and 1999) are transforming the image of socially responsible investing (SRI). Knowledgeable and well-connected, the Millennials are using their power to drive the investment universe to cater to their demands for investments which not only provide competitive financial returns, but also deliver measurable environmental and social benefits. Several studies have in fact demonstrated that incorporating environmental, social and governance (ESG) data in investment analysis correlates with superior risk-adjusted returns at a securities level. No longer are investors willing to sacrifice returns for the good of society - the Millennials are demanding more.
A journey through Europe’s political minefield…
I don’t think we’re alone in saying 2016 will go down in history as a watershed moment for global politics - a year when the people stood up and voted for wholesale change. Arguably the only thing upstaging 2016’s propensity for shocks, is 2017’s potential to deliver more of the same, and possibly on an even bigger scale.
Diamonds in the rough...
Emerging markets (EMs) is the well-worn phrase coined to describe the group of countries considered to be underdeveloped, but which are rapidly growing and urbanising. Despite their reputation for carrying significant economic and political risk, EMs present opportunities to invest in companies looking to take advantage of the growing population of consumers. The result? Potentially higher investment returns compared to investments in developed countries.
Trump takes his throne
The dust had settled, the shock had begun to subside and the hecklers had… well they’re still heckling… but nonetheless, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th President of the United States, taking his throne as leader of the world’s most powerful nation.
2016 Review / 2017 Outlook
2016 in politics - Four down, one to go Harold Wilson is attributed as saying that a week is a long time in politics. One wonders what he would have made of the political drama throughout 2016, an extraordinary year of political upheaval where the improbable became routine.
100 days to deliver
2016 was tumultuous in the context of political upheaval but 2017 promises to be no less interesting. Decisions made by the electorate in the UK over Brexit and the US over Trump, will see their expectations or fears unfold in 2017-2018. For once, the politicians have to deliver on the electorate's wishes.
Pro-EU candidate Emmanuel Macron sweeps to election victory in France Last night French Presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron swept to victory to become France’s next President. The youngest ever President at just 39 years old won with 66% of the vote against Marine Le Pen of the Front National who took 34% of the vote. The Euro jumped in Asian trading after the news broke, likewise, markets in both Europe and UK open higher today on the news that political volatility in Europe has dramatically decreased on the news that France will continue to be governed by a pro-EU candidate. All eyes now look to the ECB for more direction on future monetary policy in Europe.
US labour market remains healthy US payrolls data released today shows 211,000 jobs added in April, which is over 20,000 more than forecast and significantly more than the 79,000 jobs added in the month of March. The unemployment rate, which was expected to rise from 4.5% to 4.6%, unexpectedly fell to 4.4% and is now the lowest it has been since May 2007. The majority of these employment gains were concentrated in services, while manufacturing and construction jobs also rose, but at a weaker pace than the start of the year. The data shows that the US labour market remains healthy and signal positively for continued increases in consumer spending. Wage growth was the weakest part of the report, rising 2.5 per cent year-on-year, from 2.6 per cent in the previous month. The data add to the expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates next month, though Treasury yields initially fell, reacting to the softer wage growth data, before rebounding swiftly after.
France’s two presidential candidates go head-to-head. Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen faced off in the first head-to-head televised debate of the campaign on Wednesday. The debate served to highlight the stark differences in their visions for the future of their country. Macron underlined security and tackling terror as a priority, accusing Le Pen of being complacent about the subject, while Le Pen accused Macron of being 'the candidate of savage globalisation'. He responded by referring to Le Pen as 'the high priestess of fear'. The pair also clashed on the future of the EU. Le Pen said she would call for an in-out referendum on EU membership, restoring France's national currency and giving companies and banks an option on which currency to pay in, however Macron thought this idea was 'nonsense'. Overall, it appeared Macron cemented his position as front-runner in the debate, as he was generally regarded as the most convincing candidate. European equity markets and the currency are up, reflecting a generally optimistic tone.
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates on hold in the range of 0.75 per cent to 1 per cent as expected, however they have left open the possibility of raising them next month. The reason for keeping monetary policy unchanged was due to a slowdown in growth during the first quarter of the year, however the Fed are generally optimistic about the overall health of the US economy, with the view that this slowdown in growth is more likely to be transitory. They highlighted the strength of the labour market, solid consumer spending and business investment and inflation which is close to their target rate. The probability that the Fed raises rates by 0.25 per cent next month has risen to 90 per cent and this has been reflected in bond markets, with Treasury yields moving higher as markets price in a June hike.
US GDP falls short after Trumps first 100 days As President elect Trump comes up to his first 100 days in office the US released GDP data showing lacklustre growth figures for the first quarter of 2017. GDP grew at just 0.7% in Q1 2017, this growth figure is the slowest three month growth figure since 2014. Growth figures were dragged down by a falloff in consumer spending on big ticket items such as cars and televisions. Positive growth areas came from international exports, business and housing investment. This slowdown in growth will give both the White House and the Fed plenty to think about when it comes to recent tax reform proposals and the next date of a proposed interest rate hike.
UK Q1 GDP figures fall short of expectations Results for UK GDP growth in the first quarter show the economy grew only 0.3% to 2.3%, less than half the rate of growth from the same period in 2016. The weaker rate of expansion may point to the effects weaker Sterling has had on UK price inflation and spending power. Despite the disappointing figures, the economy remains resilient in the face of Brexit and it is likely the Bank of England will continue to keep monetary policy highly accommodative throughout 2017 in order to steady the economy. UK government bonds are seeing moderate selling and the FTSE All Share is down 0.2%.
Trumps tax reforms leave investors wanting more Yesterday President elect Donald Trump announced a raft of amendments to the US tax structure. The tax amendments were touted by the White House as the biggest in US history. A sharp reduction in corporate taxes from 35% to 15% and a simplification in the tax bands on individuals were at the centre of the cuts. What was also on the table was a ‘one time’ reduced corporate tax rate to induce US companies to re patriate trillions in profits being held overseas. With investors being underwhelmed by the lack of clarity in the specifics, commentators have begun to speculate that the announcement was more a statement of intent rather than a detailed set of cuts.
Macron and Le Pen move to second round in French presidency Yesterday French voters headed to the election polls in the first of the two rounds to elect a new French president. Out of the five candidates running for office it was centralist and pro EU candidate Emmanuel Macron who came out on top with 23.9% of the national vote and far right leader Marine Le Pen coming in second with 21.4% of the vote. France will once again head to the polling booths on May 7th to decide who of these two will take up the French presidency. Polls for the second round have put a 60% probability of centre candidate Macron coming out victorious. Gold and other haven assets sold off on the news whilst the Euro strengthened 1.8% against the dollar as investors’ fears around the election outcome subsided. With the prospect of an extremist party governing France now looking increasingly unlikely it appears to be a risk on environment for European equities.
UK snap election called for 8th June The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, will be presenting a motion to the House of Commons tomorrow to call a snap general election on the 8th of June. May has accused the UK's other political parties of jeopardising the outcome of Brexit negotiations and argued that calling an election now will help provide stability throughout the next few years. Sterling saw some volatility following the announcement but ultimately rebounded above pre announcement levels. The FTSE 100 has begun to extend earlier losses and could be expected to see increased volatility in the run up to the election.
President Trump launches military strike against Syria Under the proviso of protecting US national security, President Trump last night ordered two US destroyers in the Mediterranean to launch a salvo of 59 Tomahawk missiles aimed at the Shayrat air base. The base is home to Assad's Syrian air force and where the recent gas attacks are believed to have been launched from. The US strike been seen as a clear indicator the Trump administration will not be playing by the same rules as the previous administration. Markets went long haven assets with Gold, Yen and US treasuries all rallying strongly overnight in Asian trading. European equity markets have opened lower today on the news.
Far left’s Mélenchon wins French’s second presidential debate Last night saw the second round of the French presidential debate which, over 3 hours saw the 11 candidates’ discuss foreign policy, terrorism, economics and EU membership. Latest polls suggest the winner was far left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 25% of people believing he was the most convincing. The two leading candidates clashed on the Eurozone policy. Centre candidate Emanuel Macron accused far right candidate Le Pen of wanting to start a an ‘economic war’ in her pursuit of taking France out of the single currency. With recent polls suggesting that 25% of the French electorate are still undecided on a candidate there is all to play for in the run up to the first round of voting on the 23rd.
Britain triggers historic Article 50 Prime Minister Theresa May, last night, signed the historic letter signalling Britain’s intent to leave the European Union. At 1.20pm today, Sir Tim Barrow, Britons ambassador to the EU will present Donald Tusk, the European Council President with the letter of intent. Prime Minister May was keen to stress her intent to build bridges with EU nations in what has been seen by many as a softening of rhetoric from No.10 in an attempt to smooth out the exit process. Sterling has seen some weakness in Asian markets as global investors seek to distance themselves from the currency ahead of the issuing of Article 50 later today.
President Trump fails to repeal Obamacare President Trump, on Friday, failed to secure backing from congress on legislation to repeal former President Obama’s Affordable Care Act. Main opposition came from a group of staunch conservative Republicans called the ‘Freedom Caucus’. The US dollar and the S&P 500 sold off in the wake of the result, European markets have also opened up lower today on the news. Failure to repeal Obamacare has been seen by markets as a stumbling block to the President being able to deliver on the reform agenda he was elected to introduce, this is causing some nervousness. The White House was keen to move on from the blow, with Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, announcing the president would be moving onto tax reform.
Sterling jumps as UK Inflation exceeds 2% target Consumer Price Index figures have beaten the consensus 2% forecast for February, revealing inflation running at 2.3% year-on-year. This compares to January's rate of 1.8% and represents the first time since 2013 that it has exceeded The Bank of England's 2% target. Sterling has seen strong gains against major currencies such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen in the immediate wake of the news, gaining 0.85% against the US Dollar and helping to send the US Dollar Index - a measure against a basket of its peers – below 100 for the first time since February. This appreciation will contribute to a muted day in the FTSE 100 as foreign earners see their profits contract, with the index down 0.22% at the time of writing. UK government debt is also seeing a strong rise in yields today (which move inversely to price) as investors move away from the assets that are the most likely to be eroded by inflation.
‘En Marche’ takes 1st round in French presidential debate Monday night saw the first round of Presidential debates held in France. In what was seen as a lively debate, candidates traded repeated blows on the French economy, Eurozone membership and Islam, as well as a good measure of personal jibes. Polls taken just after the 3 hour debate put Mr Macron of the ‘En Marche’ party as the overall winner despite the ex-economic minister taking flack on his suitability to govern the country at just 39 years of age. The French electorate are set to head to the polls in a little over a month for the first round of voting. Latest polls have both Le Pen of ‘Front National’ and Mr Macron of ‘En March’ having 26% and 26.5% of the vote respectively. Mr Macron looks set to take the presidency in the second round.
Market relief as Dutch far-right defeat Geert Wilders' far-right party has failed to defeat the centre-right Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, in the Dutch general elections yesterday, allowing EU markets to breathe a sigh of relief as worries over growing populist movements subside for the time being. Wilder's party have come in second place, losing by a wide margin, yet Rutte's VVD party has slipped by 8 seats in parliament. This morning the Eurostoxx 50 index, a representation of EU-wide blue chip companies, has gained around 1%. The Euro index, which measures the currency against a basket of its peers is down modestly by 0.1% at the time of writing and may remain volatile throughout the day.
Federal Reserve raise the US interest rate but advocate caution The US Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, yesterday evening announced the first US interest rate rise of 2017. The rise saw the US base rate move up from 0.5% to 0.75%-1%. This signals the first of what is widely expected to be 3 rate hikes in 2017. She did however temper any jubilance in markets by releasing a very cautious message extoling the virtues of vigilance and positive data in today’s uncertain world. It was this cautious tone that caught a predominantly jubilant market off guard. None the less, with the Federal Reserve definitely picking up the pace of increases, markets believe this to be indicative of the world’s largest economy being firmly on the path to economic recovery. Markets have reacted positively to the news with the S&P 500 rallying 0.8% off the back of the news but the dollar failed to strengthen given Yellen’s overly cautious tone. Markets will be looking towards the next set of employment figures out in April as the lead indicator for where the FED goes from here
Hammond scraps week old National Insurance rise. Chancellor Phillip Hammond, today, announced his intention to scrap the proposed increase in National Insurance tax on the self-employed introduced a week prior in the spring budget. Despite the loss of £500m a year the amendment has been seen as a politically fuelled U-turn to stem the backlash from the party back benchers on breaking a Conservative 2015 election promise not to raise the tax burden on the self-employed.
Green light in the commons for Article 50 Yesterday Prime minister May defeated parliamentary opposition to the issuing of Article 50. The defeat enables her to start exit negotiations in Brussels at the end of the month as anticipated. The amended bill passed through the House of Lords a second time, unimpeded. Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party took the opportunity to demand a second referendum on Scottish independence before the two year exit negotiations conclude. Commentators widely expect May to comply with this but only after the UK has concluded EU negotiations ensuring she is not fighting on two fronts. In an otherwise flat market, UK stocks are up modestly on the news, while Sterling has seen significant weakness as markets again turn to the pound to express their negativity. This ongoing depression in the pound continues to contribute to portfolios overseas investments.
Strong US jobs data signals March rate hike US Non-farm Payroll figures for February surprised markets with the addition of 235K new jobs. The figure is 23% higher than the consensus forecast of 190K. This came with an acceleration in wage growth of 2.8% with the largest increases being seen across the construction and manufacturing sectors. February's robust numbers forced market expectations for a March rate hike to rise off the news. In opening trading US stock markets reacted positively to the news
Growth and inflation revised up as ECB holds rates Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced today that, not only will they be keeping European interest rates on hold, but that the central bank will also be standing ready to increase its asset purchase program (QE) should it need to. QE, which was meant to be tapered towards the end of 2017, could now be extended longer as it is claimed to be showing material benefits to the EU economy. EU GDP forecasts have received a slight increase, up 0.1% to 1.8% for 2017, whilst inflation has also been forecast higher to 1.7% for the year. The news sparked Euro strength and rallied EU equity markets in the immediate aftermath.
UK growth upgraded in Spring Budget The UK's 2017 Growth forecast has been upgraded from 1.4% to 2% as Philip Hammond delivered the Spring Budget today. Forecasts for 2018 to 2019 have been cut marginally, however, yet the prediction for 2% growth in 2021 still stands. Other key points included an accelerated reduction in net public borrowing, particularly for the current financial year, and a rise in National Insurance contributions that will hit the self-employed, potentially raising significant revenues for the Tax Office. Sterling, which depreciated in the today's run-up to the Budget, has failed to recover fully and stands around 0.18% lower against the US Dollar and 0.14% down against the Euro at the time of writing. UK equity markets remained upbeat on the prospects and notched a 0.16% move up on the announcement. UK government debt began to see some weakness as prices sold off over 4%.
Trump delivers a light-on-detail speech In his first address to Congress, Donald Trump appeared poised and presidential, which has no doubt given a boost to his popularity, however he delivered little in the way of specifics with regards to his policies. He offered little insight into the details of his proposed corporate tax cuts, border taxes or plans to loosen financial industry regulation. However he did reiterate the promises he has made to get these plans underway and also voiced support for Nato. The response from financial markets was muted, suggesting that all markets, including equity markets, will be wanting more details from Trump regarding his policies. With this said, his speech has been considered by many as one of his best performances as a speaker and leader, being his most substantive thus far with an overall optimistic tone which is hoped will create momentum after a shaky start to his term.
Federal Reserve minutes signal next rate rise Minutes released today from the US Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting have revealed that many of its members are ready to raise interest rates again in the near future. Other members, however, expressed concerns about uncertainty over the effects of President Trump’s policies – such as tax cuts and fiscal spending – and maintained that the central bank should be prepared to take action if the US economy falters from its recent strong performance. The next meeting is due on the 14th March, at which time futures are pricing in a 34% chance of a rate hike, showing a degree of scepticism. The market reaction has been relatively muted as equity markets stall to an extent. The UK FTSE 100 is flat off the news, yet European markets are creeping upwards. In the US, Futures suggest equity markets will rise marginally, whilst US bond yields are falling as safer assets are bought.
US Inflation rises to 2.5% Odds of the US Federal Reserve increasing interest rates in March have increased after US inflation data came in above expectations at 2.5% for January, up from 2.1% previously. As inflationary pressures mount, so too does pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue normalising interest rates. Robust economic data at this stage adds weight to the US central bank's hawkish view. US data on consumer spending grew for the fifth consecutive month in January, showing that the change of presidency has yet to have a material negative impact on consumer habits. US industrial production fell short of expectations with a decline of -0.3% attributed to a strengthening US dollar. In the wake of these releases, the US dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of its peers, saw weakness, whilst US stock markets were up on the day. US treasuries sold off as equity markets regained some confidence and safer assets were less in demand.
UK Inflation reaches 1.8% UK Inflation hit its highest level in two and a half years in January, reaching 1.8% and bringing it closer to the Bank of England’s target rate of 2%. The central bank expects UK inflation to rise to as much as 2.7% by the end of the year, brought about primarily by Sterling’s depreciation. Food and transport were areas where inflation was felt the most, with prices rising, and set to rise, in order to keep up with the growing cost of imports. Inflation above the Bank of England’s 2% target is likely to hurt consumers spending power, assuming wage growth is unable to keep up. For the time being, the central bank appears to maintain a neutral stance on interest rates and has indicated that it will tolerate above target inflation, given the current environment. As the news was released, the FTSE 100 index remained flat, yet bond prices were rising, showing a moderate risk-off move as investors preferred safer assets.
UK economic outlook improves, again Today the UK welcomed fresh data that showed Britain’s trade deficit had narrowed by more than forecast in addition to industrial and manufacturing production beating expectations. This comes on the same day the UK had its rate of GDP growth upgraded from 0.6% to 0.7% for the three months leading to the end of January. Taken together, the UK economy has put on a real show of resilience since the vote to leave the EU and continues to surprise markets to the upside. Today, the FTSE 100 was up around 0.4% at the time of writing, whilst most other markets were less chipper. Sterling saw strength today, up against other currencies such as the Euro and the Japanese Yen, whilst it remained flat against the US dollar which remains the dominant currency. UK bonds continued to sell, sending yields higher.
UK Parliament votes for the triggering of article 50 Last night the UK government voted in an overwhelming majority of 494 votes to 122 in approval of the triggering of article 50. This flies in the face of previous speculation that the triggering of the treaty might be stalled in the House of Commons. The historic vote has been hailed as a victory for the nation who voted to leave the EU. Prime minster May managed to force a 3 line whip on the vote and quash a late rebellion from some of the more staunch remain MP’s. Labours attempt fell short with Mr Corbyn seeing 52 Labour MP’s vote against the bill.
US starts off 2017 with bumper Jobs number US employers added a further 227,000 jobs to the US economy in January 2017 which came in above analysts’ expectations of 180,000. Sectors such as construction, retail and finance were amongst the biggest growth sectors. In contrast wage inflation in the US slowed to just 2.5% over January 2016, this figure came in below expectations suggesting there is still some slack in the US jobs market. Many market commentators continue to theorise on how President Trump intends to create another 25 million new jobs with the US labour market nearing full employment.
BofE upgrades UK growth forecasts and keeps rates unchanged The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has voted unanimously to leave monetary policy unchanged. The bank’s main interest rate will remain at its record low of 0.25 per cent and it will continue with its planned purchase of corporate bonds, which will rise to £10bn over the next year. The bank have also upgraded growth forecasts for the next three years, predicting 2 per cent this year- up from November’s 1.4 per cent forecast, based on forecasts that consumer spending will slow less quickly this year than was predicted in November, despite rising inflation. The pound, which had rallied after MPs late Wednesday voted in favour of giving the Prime Minister power to trigger Article 50, fell on the news. The FTSE 100 index was trading higher after the news that the UK economy will grow substantially faster than its downgraded forecasts made after the Brexit vote in June.
May wins commons vote and FED keeps rates on hold Wednesday evening saw Prime Minster May win a historic mandate to move forward with article 50 from the House of Commons. MP’s voted by 498 to 114 in favour of giving the Prime Minister the power to invoke the EU treat’s Article 50 exit clause. Across the Atlantic the US Federal Reserve opted unanimously to keep short term interest rates on hold at the start of 2017. Markets failed to react in any great measure to the announcement as the outcome was widely expected. The FED went onto signal that it remains on track for more rate hikes this year as the US continues to put on positive growth numbers as well as inflation continuing to head back towards its 2% target.
Trump ban’s travel into US from seven Muslim countries Over the weekend President Trump issued his most controversial executive order to temporarily block travel into the US from seven Muslim countries. This announcement has rounded off an extremely vocal first week in office. World leaders along with some of the world’s largest companies joined together in their condemnation of the executive order. The success of Prime Minister May’s trip to the US in which she strengthened the UK’s “special relationship” with the US was short lived as MP’s campaigned for the UK to rescind the invitation to host President Trump at Buckingham Palace later this year unless the ban is lifted.
UK economy beats forecasts The UK economy has beaten forecasts, growing at a rate of 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2016, above the 0.5 per cent figure estimated. This was mainly driven by strong consumer spending and expansion of the services sector, but the manufacturing sector also grew strongly and reversed much of the contraction of the third quarter. Industrial production was unchanged from the previous quarter. Overall, the figures show strength and resilience of the UK economy, which was in fact the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year, despite the political headwinds. However, it is important to note that much of this increase in consumer spending was debt driven and with the anticipation of interest rises and inflation in the future, demand for credit could slow and consumer spending may weaken. The pound sold off on the report over concerns that UK growth is being propped up entirely by services.
UK supreme court rules in favour of parliament vote on article 50 The UK Supreme Court this morning ruled by 8 justices to 3 that parliament must hold a vote on Brexit and that the government cannot use royal prerogative to trigger article 50. The ruling has put parliament firmly at the centre of the triggering of article 50. As a result, Theresa May is expected to push a brief bill through both houses of parliament to comply with the ruling. There still remains speculation that even a brief bill could be stalled should politicians wish to challenge the proposed exit strategy. Across the Atlantic President Trump sought to make an impact on his first day in the Oval office by following through with his election promises on protectionism via signalling the US economy would be withdrawing from the 12 nation strong Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. He also reiterated his threat to punish US companies seen to be offshoring production overseas with a hefty boarder tax.
Donald J Trump sworn in as the 45th President of the United States Donald J Trump begins his first week in the White House today. Friday 20th of January saw his inauguration as the 45th President of the United States of America. His tumultuous relationship with the US press surfaced again as he rubbished reports over low attendance at the inauguration ceremony. On matters of state, there still appears to be speculation about his first week in office as key positions within the president’s inner cabinet have yet to be filled. The president will this week meet with Theresa May to discuss all issues pertaining to Russia, NATO and a bilateral UK-US trade deal which will prove crucial to the UK as it attempts to negotiate its way out of the Eurozone.
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